Forecasting global malaria commodity needs

MAP, in partnership with CHAI IVCC,Swiss TPH, MMV and RBM, has produced global forecasts of demand for important malaria commodities forward to 2031. MAP provided estimates of historical and projected need, demand and consumption of ITNs, RDTs and antimalarials including ACTs. 

ITN projections – based off [MAP’s models] HERE – were communicated based on an interactive dashboard with two modes: a) determining future coverage based on user-specified net distribution volumes; or b) determining required net distribution volume to achieve a desired coverage. 

Need, demand, and use estimates for drugs and diagnostic commodities are based on a comprehensive case-management modelling framework designed for this project, tracking fevers occurring in the community through care-seeking, diagnosis and treatment. A range of methodologies is used within the pipeline to capture changes in case management practices associated with changing epidemiological and socio-economic factors, based on cross-sectional survey data. Breaking down drug and diagnostic use in this way allows us to interrogate which steps in the pathway from illness to treatment have the biggest impact on commodity usage, and where compliance to guidelines is being best achieved. Our results show large-scale increases in testing and treatment of malaria since 2010, reflecting the roll-out of RDTs, improved access to effective antimalarials.

With this historical baseline established we can produce scenario-based projections into the future. As with ITNs, these scenarios are best communicated using interactive dashboards – CHAI have developed one synthesising MAP’s outputs with other consortium members, meanwhile MAP has developed one in-house in partnership with the PMI:Insights consortium.